Grievances and Greenlash: A Structural Equation Model of Perceived Discrimination, Populism, and Climate Attitudes

Abstract

Climate skepticism in the United States persists despite strong scientific consensus and escalating environmental risks. Although prior research highlights the central role of conservatism in explaining skepticism, much less is known about why such ideological positions become appealing to their supporters and which underlying threats or insecurities individuals draw on when adopting skeptical attitudes toward climate policy or action. This study examines how perceptions that one’s own gender or racial group is more discriminated against than others (coined Perceived Relative Discrimination) shape climate attitudes both directly and indirectly through populist orientations. Using pooled data from the 2016, 2020, and 2024 American National Election Studies, I estimate a multi-group structural equation model with mediation across eight race-gender groups. The results show that identity threat operates differently across these groups. Among White men and women, perceived relative racial discrimination predicts lower support for environmental actions and policies directly and indirectly via intensifying populism. For Black men, populism has the opposite pattern, corresponding to support for environmental protection. Hispanic respondents show a distinct pattern in which perceived racial discrimination is positively associated with pro-environmental attitudes, without any mediating effect. Perceived gender discrimination positively correlated with pro-environmental attitudes among all women while reducing them among all men, except Blacks. These relationships emerge net of political conservatism and partisanship, underscoring the importance of identity, emotion, and cultural threat in shaping climate politics.