On Dynamic Management of Lead Times

Abstract

Defense supply networks support the timely provision of resources in high-stakes and uniquely complex environments involving multiple stakeholders, including government entities, suppliers, and users. The unique complexity of defense supply networks stems from their role in maintaining national security, supporting military readiness, and ensuring that resources are reliably delivered under high-stakes, contested environments. These networks must also navigate conflicting goals, such as balancing cost efficiency, security, and mission readiness, while contending with unpredictable global environments. Due to these unique features, defense supply networks are typically designed to be resilient, lean, and efficient. However, resilience-based system design results in fragile networks that are vulnerable to disruptions potentially jeopardizing mission-critical operations. Since all defense supply networks operate within a landscape of both anticipated and unanticipated variations and disruptions, systems that go beyond resilience towards fail-safe must be developed. In this thesis, analyzing lead time management techniques as a feature of fail-safe system design presents a unique opportunity to identify gaps and a way forward for additional research. Identifying gaps in defense lead time management frameworks is a step towards determining principles for designing fail-safe defense supply networks.In this context, defense supply networks designed for resilience are typically based on cyber-physical systems (CPS). CPS-based design often overlooks the social elements due to their qualitative nature. However, including social components in system design is hypothesized as more comprehensive perspective in cyber-physical-social systems (CPSS). These social components such as trust, leadership, and team cohesion are essential in modern defense contexts. In this thesis, CPSS principles are hypothesized to provide a robust perspective for developing adaptable, fail-safe systems that incorporate both technological and social dimensions for enhanced decision-making and operational readiness. In this thesis, a comprehensive literature review on current practices in both generalized and defense-specific supply network design is conducted with a focus on their responses to variations and disruptions. To identify constraints among stakeholders in a multi-stakeholder defense supply network, the Nested Function-Behavior-Structure Dilemma Triangle Method (F-B-S DTM) is used to develop a Requirements List based in Dilemma resolutions. Defense sustainment is further examined as a defense supply network using the Business Model Canvas to identify key network components. Next, defense sustainment as a defense supply network is analyzed using the Air Force Sustainment Center's Art of the Possible framework to reveal gaps in lead time management. These gaps are further explored using System Archetypes to contextualize patterns of Behavior and Structure, enabling a deeper understanding of constraints within defense supply networks. The findings within this thesis include the hypothesis that fail-safe defense supply networks within contested logistics environments should include adaptability and robust decision-making strategies to counter disruptions. By integrating CPSS perspectives that include comprehensive human factors that include the worker and the stakeholders, defense supply networks can operate in and prepare for environments where social dynamics like trust and collaboration significantly impact operations. Designing fail-safe systems is hypothesized to require policies that shift from rigid resilience-based paradigms toward systems of flexibility, through an incorporation of real-time data, predictive analytics, and cross-functional collaboration. The way forward for policy recommendations include a design for dynamic system reconfiguration, decentralized governance, and adaptive feedback loops. These policies must include advocacy for networks that enable localized autonomy, foster public-private partnerships, and allow for effective cross-organizational collaboration among government, suppliers, and users. The way forward identified in this thesis culminated into potential research avenues for designing fail-safe systems based in satisficing decision frameworks, modular redundancy, and scalable dynamic reconfiguration strategies in a Ph.D. These research avenues include a prioritization of adaptability over strict efficiency and include supporting continuous improvement and proactive responses to complex, multidimensional threats.