Reflecting on the past and looking towards the future: The effects of case analysis and outcome valence on forecasting

Abstract

Prior research has demonstrated the importance of forecasting to creative problem-solving performance. Less is known about how case analysis and outcome valence impact forecasting performance. In this study, 266 participants were asked to assume the role of a Marketing Director of a clothing company and develop a marketing campaign for entering a new market. Prior to developing this final campaign, participants were asked to analyze company cases, develop an outline of their plan, and forecast the implications of this plan. Although manipulations did not impact final problem solutions, analysis of weaknesses of present company operations and generation of positive outcomes were found to contribute to the highest levels of forecasting. In turn, forecasting was found to predict the quality, originality, and elegance of final marketing plans. The implications of these findings for encouraging people to engage in forecasting are discussed.