Evaluating the Impact of External Factors on the Stability of the Ethereum Network

Abstract

This thesis investigates the resilience of the Ethereum peer-to-peer network against various external factors through empirical analysis. While previous researches have studied different aspects of the then proof-of-work (PoW) blockchain or the impactof external factors on other communication systems, the impact on the proof-of-stake (PoS) Ethereum blockchain remains unexplored. Our study examines three potential influence vectors: cyber threats, geomagnetic activity, and media coverage. Through a comprehensive analysis of head attestations from Ethereum nodes, complemented by honeypot data, geomagnetic measurements, and news sentiment analysis, we compare security patterns between Ethereum and non-Ethereum hosts. Our methodology employs Dynamic Time Warping and Granger Causality Test to detect correlations and anomalies. The results reveal that while Ethereum nodes face similar attack volumes as non-Ethereum hosts, they exhibit distinct patterns in targeted ports and CVEs exploitation attempts. There are also some differences between regions. Notably, our analysis found no significant correlation between the network performance and any of the examined external factors. While this suggests stability in the network’s operation during normal conditions, further research over longer periods and during major events would be needed to make broader conclusions about the network’s resilience. This research contributes to the understanding of PoS blockchain network resilience and is a starting point for further research into the particularities of the Ethereum network against adversaries.