How Far "Above the Fray"? Unpacking the Mechanisms of the Monarchical Advantage in the Arab Uprisings

Abstract

Every one of the eight monarchies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) remained standing in the wake of the Arab Spring uprisings, giving rise to claims of a “monarchical advantage” or “monarchical exceptionalism.” This dissertation examines the claim of monarchical advantage as it relates to popular protest, asking three research questions: are monarchies better than non-monarchies in forestalling popular protests in the 21st century MENA? Are monarchies better than non-monarchies in withstanding protests that do occur? Do monarchies exhibit patterns of response to protests that differ from non-monarchies? Making use of interviews and an original data set of protests and regime responses in the linchpin monarchy of Jordan, the dynastic monarchy of Bahrain, and the republic of Tunisia, this dissertation finds that while both monarchies successfully withstood protests, the monarchies were not better at preventing protests or at controlling protests than the republic. The pattern of persuasion and coercion in preventing and controlling protest does not vary systematically between the monarchies and the republic in this sample. This dissertation finds little evidence of monarchical advantage with respect to popular protest during the Arab Spring.